“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”:A Guide to Preparing for and Navigating LNG Price Reviews in an Evolving Market
本文分为上、下两期，此为下期（上期内容欢迎点击文末链接获取），欢迎阅读~
五、如何确定最适用的大宗商品价格假设？
5. What Are the Most Appropriate Commodity Price Assumptions To Apply?
价格复议分析中另一项潜在核心问题，是应采用何种适用的大宗商品价格假设，对每份合格合同的价格进行换算，以实现与案涉LNG购销协议合同价格的同口径对比。这一问题的必要性在于，价格复议中，合格数据组内的所有价格公式，其结构未必都与案涉LNG购销协议的合同价格一致。举例而言：
A further potentially key issue in the price review analysis concerns the appropriate commodity price assumptions to adopt in order to convert the price of each qualifying contract so that it can be compared against the relevant contract price on a like-for-like basis. This is relevant because it is common in price reviews for not all of the price formulae in the qualifying data group to be structured in the same way as the contract price in the relevant LNG SPA. For example:
1.案涉LNG购销协议可能为FOB（free-on-board）合同，即由买方负责将LNG从液化工厂运输至最终目的地。但部分合格数据对应的交付方式可能为DES（delivered ex-ship），即由卖方负责LNG运输。
a) The relevant LNG SPA may be a free-on-board (FOB) contract, which means that the buyer is responsible for transporting the LNG from the liquefaction facility to its end destination. Some of the qualifying data points may, however, be delivered ex-ship (DES) which means that the seller is responsible for transporting the LNG.
2. 合格数据对应的合同，其气源可能来自全球各地不同的生产设施。因此，从该等设施将LNG运输至相关目的地市场的成本，可能与案涉LNG购销协议项下LNG项目的运输成本存在差异。
b) The qualifying data point contracts may be supplied from a number of different production facilities around the world. The cost of transporting LNG from these facilities into the relevant destination market may therefore be different to the cost of transporting it from the LNG project under the applicable LNG SPA.
3. 双方在价格公式中约定的“常数”项可能有所不同。
c) The parties may have negotiated a different “constant” component in their price formula.
4. 并非所有合格数据都挂钩同一大宗商品指数（例如布伦特原油）。部分合同可能挂钩其他价格指数，如日本原油综合价格（JCC）或亨利港天然气指数（Henry Hub）。显然，按上述指数百分比计算的斜率，其美元金额与按布伦特原油百分比计算的斜率（slope）存在差异。
d) Not all qualifying data points may be indexed to the same commodity; for example, Brent. Some may be indexed to other price indices, like JCC or Henry Hub. Obviously, a slope calculated as a percentage of these indices is different, in dollar terms, to a slope calculated as a percentage of Brent.
因此，必须对合格数据对应的合同价格进行调整，方能与案涉LNG购销协议实现口径一致的对比。
It follows that the prices of the qualifying data points contracts must therefore be adjusted to enable comparison with the relevant LNG SPA on a consistent basis.
六、价格调整或修订涵盖哪些内容？
6. What Does the Adjustment or Revision Involve?
价格复议中往往会涉及一个问题：价格调整实际包含哪些内容？例如，调整可能仅涉及修订特定挂钩商品（如JCC）的百分比斜率，因此分析与最终调整将聚焦于该具体调整幅度，而非修改合同价格公式本身。另一种情形下，合同措辞可能允许更宽泛的调整，例如彻底变更价格公式，纳入枢纽定价（hub pricing）等新要素，或采用布伦特/JCC与枢纽指数（如Henry Hub、JKM等）的拆分/混合挂钩模式。
Often, price reviews can involve questions of what a price adjustment actually entails. For example, it may involve revising the percentage slope to a prescribed commodity, such as JCC, and thus the analysis and ultimate adjustment will focus on that specific level of adjustment rather than amending the contract price formula. Alternatively, the wording of the contract may encompass a broader adjustment; for example, changing the formula altogether to include new elements such as total hub pricing or a split/hybrid of Brent or JCC to Hub, such as Henry Hub or JKM, etc.
这会引发与枢纽定价机制及市场波动相关的风险问题，例如哪些枢纽指数最为适配。近年来，JKM与欧洲天然气价格受市场事件影响波动剧烈，采用该类定价方式也会提升双方的风险敞口。
This raises questions of risk based on hub pricing mechanics and dynamics, such as which hubs may be best suited. It can also heighten the risk profile for parties when in recent years JKM and Eurogas pricing has been quite volatile in response to market events.
七、整体策略如何制定？
7. What Is the Game Plan?
制定一项有效的价格复议策略是一份多维度、精细化的工作，需综合商业考量、市场分析与法律解释。因此，任何价格复议谈判的一个核心要素，都在于明确本次价格复议的整体目标。双方须在内部厘清“成功”的定义：例如，是实现特定水平的价格调整？是变更指数（indexation）挂钩方式？还是一方希望以价格让步换取更大的灵活性？
就最后一点而言，对买方来说，案涉购销协议在其资源组合中扮演何种角色？合同约定的采购量是用于国内发电，还是用于资源组合优化？无论何种情形，一方的策略都必须基于前述分析，做到客观且有据可依。精准把握自身（及对方）的优劣势，将证据与分析整合成一套逻辑自洽、有说服力的方案，且符合价格复议条款的参数要求，是制定成功策略的关键。
Developing an effective price review strategy is a multifaceted, detailed process that brings together commercial considerations, market analysis and legal interpretation. It follows that a fundamental factor in any price review negotiation concerns the overall objective of the exercise. It is important to determine internally what a “win” involves. For example, is it a specific price level adjustment? Does it involve a change in indexation? Or is a party seeking to trade price for greater flexibility? On this last point, for buyer parties, what role does the SPA in question play in their portfolio? Are the contractual volumes destined for domestic electricity generation, or is it the SPA being used for optimisation? Either way, a party’s strategy must be objective and defensible based on the analysis discussed above. Understanding the strength and weaknesses of your (and your counterpart’s) position and weaving the evidence and analysis into a coherent and persuasive plan, consistent with the parameters of the price review clause, is critical to developing a successful strategy.
除此之外，尽早启动筹备工作并制定内部授权方案、明确决策流程也极具价值。这有助于解决两类实际问题：其一，筹备初期明确授权范围；其二，谈判后期明确和解方案的审批权限，以及向高级管理层的汇报路径。
Beyond these points, it is also valuable to commence the preparatory process early and, in doing so, develop an internal mandate, which establishes a clear decision-making process. This can help address practical considerations (a) at the outset regarding the scope of the mandate; and (b) down the line concerning authority to approve any settlement and reporting lines to senior leadership.
八、亚洲价格复议的新趋势
8. The New Era of Asian Price Reviews
正如本文开篇所述，以商业方式解决价格复议，意味着双方不必仅局限于价格层面的考量。在当前的亚洲市场，价格复议正逐渐成为全面重谈合同的契机，这一点值得重点关注。
有人或许会问，为何会出现这种情况？答案在于：在通常缺乏全面重谈合同的现实基础的情形下，价格复议谈判（而非仲裁）为双方提供了同时重启价格与非价格条款谈判的空间。
近期，各方纷纷推动价格与非价格条款的双重调整，力求使整份合同适配不断变化的市场基本面。采取该策略的动因有二：其一，维护并平衡自身的资源组合；其二，伺机争取更大灵活性，以避免未来出现供应过剩的不利局面，或抓住盈利性更高的交易机会。
As noted at the outset of this piece, resolving a price review commercially means the parties are not just limited to a consideration of price. This is an important point to note in the current Asian market where price reviews are becoming a portal for comprehensive contract renegotiation. One may ask how this is the case. And the answer is that price review negotiations (not arbitrations) provide an ability to reopen both price and nonprice terms in circumstances where there often is no practicable basis for a comprehensive contract renegotiation. In recent times, parties have pursued adjustments to price and nonprice terms in an effort to keep the entire contract in line with changing market fundamentals. The motivation for such an approach is twofold: (a) to safeguard and balance a party’s portfolio; and (b) to be opportunistic where possible in securing greater flexibility to avoid damaging oversupply conditions in later years, or to capitalise on more lucrative trading opportunities.
在亚洲，价格复议不仅用于解决定价问题，还被用于争取更优的商业对价，例如：
In Asia, price reviews are being used not only to address pricing but also to seek improved commercial currencies, such as:
-
调整数量上下浮动权（DQT/UQT，quantity tolerance rights）
-
季节性数量调整
-
新增接收站使用权
-
更远距离市场的改港/转售权
-
船货规模灵活性
-
约定交付方式的修订
-
运输安排灵活性
-
其他非价格条款的谈判
a) Revised downward and upward quantity tolerance rights
b) Seasonal volume ajustments
c) Access to additional receiving terminals
d) Greater diversion rights to markets further away
e) Cargo size flexibility
f) Revisions to the prescribed delivery mode
g) Shipping flexibility
h) Negotiating other nonprice terms
诚然，商业对价范围的扩大，可能会引发关于商业灵活性如何估值的争议，尤其是在买方可能为换取更大的灵活性权利而对较低价值的价格调整做出让步的情况下。尽管如此，并不存在适用于所有价格复议的“万能方案”。相关市场格局、买卖双方主体、合同价格公式、谈判风格与商业动因虽有可比之处，但每次价格复议都存在差异。因此，上述考量仅为该复杂流程的一隅之见，完整的价格复议是一套需结合个案、审慎推进的商业、分析与法律综合程序。
Naturally, the expanded scope of commercial currencies may provoke a debate about how one values commercial flexibility, especially where a buyer may make a concession on a less valuable price revision in return for greater flexibility rights. These points notwithstanding, there is no “one size fits all” approach that one can adopt in all price reviews. While comparable, the profile of relevant markets, buyers, sellers, contract price formulae, negotiation styles and commercial motivations always differ from one price review to the next. These considerations, therefore, represent a mere snapshot into what is a detailed and carefully considered commercial, analytical and legal process applied on a case-by-case basis.
（下期完）
