“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”:A Guide to Preparing for and Navigating LNG Price Reviews in an Evolving Market
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自2020年以来，市场格局发生了剧变。各方越来越多地采用更灵活的创新方案化解价格谈判与争议——通常在价格调整上作出让步，以换取数量、目的地灵活性等更优合同条款和条件。这折射出LNG市场持续变化的现实：在充满不确定性的市场环境中，灵活性与资源组合优化已成为核心要素。随着LNG行业持续应对各类突发挑战与持续的不确定性，采购、贸易与业务拓展团队的一项核心工作重点，便是制定谈判策略以维护商业利益，同时争取宝贵的合同灵活性，以适配合同期内波动的市场行情。如今，这一策略已被广泛应用于价格复议谈判之中。
Since 2020, the market has changed dramatically. Increasingly, parties are turning to more creative solutions to resolve price negotiations and disputes – often compromising on price adjustments in return for improved terms and conditions, such as volume or destination flexibility. This reflects the reality of an LNG market that is constantly shifting, where flexibility and portfolio optimisation have become critical in an unpredictable market. As the LNG industry continues to battle unforeseen challenges and ongoing uncertainty, a key focus for procurement, trading and origination teams has involved developing negotiation strategies to safeguard commercial interests, while also seeking to secure valuable contractual flexibility to accommodate fluctuating market conditions over a contract’s term. This is now a strategy that is being regularly deployed in price review negotiations.
本文开篇需要强调的是，尽管启动价格复议谈判以调整LNG购销协议（SPA）的经济性条款是行业惯例，但该程序的价值往往未能得到充分发挥。价格复议能够且理应实现双重目标：既维持与交易相对方的良好合作关系，同时也争取切实的经济收益，并为下一合同周期锁定价格确定性。近年来，由于新冠疫情、俄乌冲突、美欧英多轮制裁、长期不可抗力事件以及持续的地缘政治紧张局势等因素引发的市场价格剧烈波动，共同凸显了两大问题：其一，价格复议工作的价值与重要性；其二，未能充分利用该程序所产生的机会成本。
It bears emphasising at the outset of this piece that while commencing price review negotiations to adjust the economics of an SPA is standard practice in the industry, the value of this exercise is often not fully realised. It can, and indeed should, be done in a way that maintains good relationships with counterparts while simultaneously securing meaningful financial benefit and providing price certainty for the next period of the contractual term. In recent years, market price volatility provoked by COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, successive waves of US, EU and UK sanctions, extended force majeure events and ongoing geopolitical tensions, have together shone a spotlight on (a) the value and importance of the price review exercise; and (b) the opportunity costs of not maximising the process.
近期市场对灵活性价值的关注度提升，价格复议谈判的范畴也已突破单纯的价格讨论。如今，市场参与者越来越多地将价格复议作为契机，重启更广泛的合同条款和条件谈判，以争取更优的商业对价。要实现价格复议谈判效果最大化，制定周全的法律与商业策略是成功的关键。
With a recent shift in focus towards flexibility value in the market, price review negotiations have widened beyond just a pure price discussion. Now, price reviews are increasingly being used as a portal to reopen the terms and conditions of the wider contract, with market players seeking improved commercial currencies. In order to optimise price review negotiations, developing a considered legal and commercial strategy is critical to success.
在此背景下，本文梳理了若干共性观察与观点，供买卖双方在起草或解释价格复议条款时参考。一般而言，价格复议条款的起草应尽可能清晰明确，设定相应参数，为双方（必要时为专家或仲裁庭）调整合同价格提供指引。
Against that backdrop, this piece sets out some common observations and perspectives for parties to consider when drafting or interpreting a price review clause. As a general matter, price review clauses should be drafted as clearly as possible, with parameters to guide the parties – and if necessary, an expert or arbitral tribunal – in making any adjustments to the contract price.
该类参数通常涉及多个维度，一般包括时间要素、触发条件、修订因素、适用数据的获取与评估、大宗商品价格假设以及加权计算方法。在下文论述中，我们将探讨双方筹备及参与价格复议时需考量的若干通用议题。
These parameters are typically multifaceted and often include temporal elements, trigger conditions, revision factors, access to and the assessment of applicable data, commodity price assumptions and weighting methodologies. In the commentary below, we consider some general topics for parties to take account of as they prepare for, and participate in, price reviews.
制定成功策略的关键第一步，是对LNG购销协议中指导并约束价格复议运作的相关条款进行详细研判。由于价格复议程序是一项合同机制，其启动通常以分析价格复议条款为起点。双方必须深入拆解该条款，明确以下内容：
A critical first step in developing a successful strategy is to undertake a detailed evaluation of the relevant provisions of the LNG SPA, which guide and constrain the operation of a price preview. As the price review process is a contractual mechanism, it customarily starts with an analysis of the price review clause. One must dissect that provision to understand:
1. 一方启动复议的前提是什么？是固定日期触发？还是实质性事件触发？
2. 需证明哪些事实，方可主张调整价格？
3. 价格/价格公式的哪些内容可予变更？
4. 相关通知期限、谈判时间安排及正式沟通渠道有哪些？
a) What allows a party to initiate a review? Is it a fixed date? Or is it a substantive trigger?
b) What must be proven to justify a price change?
c) What aspect of the price/formula can be changed?
d) What are the relevant notice periods, negotiation timelines and formal communication channels?
因此，该项分析包含两大核心维度：其一，案涉条款的起草表述（将在下文各节展开论述）；其二，合同准据法的作用——准据法将明确可适用的法律解释规则。
我们将在下文更详细地阐述这些要点。
Two fundamental aspects of this analysis are therefore (a) the drafting of the clause in question (discussed in the following sections of this article); and (b) the role of the governing law of the contract – which will inform the reader of the applicable legal interpretative principles.
We address these points in more detail below.
一、时间考量——如何制定复议程序的时间线？
1. Timing Considerations–What Is the Timeline?
准确把握适用的时间节点是制定任何价格复议谈判策略的首要关键步骤。每次价格复议须遵循的时间安排通常由价格复议条款作出约定，具体包括：
Having a firm grasp of the applicable timings is a crucial first step in the development of any price review negotiation strategy. The timeline that each price review should follow is typically established by the price review clause as follows:
1. 谈判期：指双方开展价格复议谈判、力争就调整后价格达成一致的期间。条款通常会明确谈判的启动时间，以及谈判须持续或可延续的时长。谈判期通常是双方将价格复议提交至更正式争议解决程序的前置阶段。
2. 复议期：指双方（或仲裁庭）采集数据，以评估合同价格合理性的时间区间。该期间可能会设定适用数据的采集截止日期。
3. 适用期：亦称“新价格执行期（new price period）”，即调整后的价格生效适用的时间范围。
a) Negotiation period – The relevant period for the parties to undertake price review negotiations in order to attempt to agree on the revised price. This will typically stipulate when negotiations must commence and for how long they must or may continue. The negotiation period is usually a precursor to the parties being able to submit the price review to more formal methods of dispute resolution.
b) Review period – This establishes the period over which the parties (or the tribunal) gather data from in order to evaluate and assess the suitability of the contract price. This may include a cut-off date for the gathering of applicable data.
c) Application period – Also referred to as the “new price period”, which is the timeframe during which any revised price will apply.
二、触发条件——识别并解释相关触发事件
2. Trigger Conditions–Identify and Interpret the Relevant Trigger Event(s)
下一项考量因素是，须发生何种情形方可启动或“触发”价格复议。触发方式通常分为两类：
1. 时间段触发，例如每3至5年触发一次。该类触发的起算点通常为约定日期，如购销协议生效日、首次交付日或上一次价格复议日。
2. 实质性事件触发，例如须满足“市场变化”/“不利影响”类标准。
The next consideration is what must occur in order to initiate or “trigger” the price review. This may be:
a) The passage of time, for example, every three to five years. In this regard, the time clock may start from a prescribed date, such as the commencement date of the SPA, the date of first deliveries or the prior price review date.
b) Something more substantive,for example, a requirement to meet a “change in market”/“disadvantage” style criteria.
在亚洲的长期LNG购销协议中，价格复议条款通常仅约定时间触发机制。这与欧洲及部分俄罗斯的合同形成鲜明对比——后者往往包含实质性触发条款，通常约定须发生影响相关买方市场LNG价值的重大变化。但无论采用何种触发方式，主张价格调整的一方通常（非必然）需向相对方发出正式通知，以启动价格复议程序。对此，价格复议条款一般会约定：
In long-term Asian SPAs, it is common for price review provisions to only include temporal triggers. This stands in contrast to many European and some Russian contracts, which often include substantive triggers, typically stating that a material or substantial change must have occurred that impacts the value of LNG in the relevant buyer’s market. In either case, however, it is customary (although not always necessary) for the party seeking the price adjustment to formally commence the price review by notifying its counterpart of the same. In this regard, the price review clause will typically set out:
1. 启动谈判是否必须发出书面通知
2. 如需发出通知，通知中须载明哪些内容
3. 在价格复议日前的谈判期内，双方是否有义务举行一次以上的会议；换言之，价格复议条款可能要求，双方须至少举行一次会议协商价格调整事宜，方可将价格复议提交仲裁
4. 谈判过程中是否要求高级管理人员参与
a) Whether written notification must be issued in order to start discussions.
b) If so, what must be included in that notice.
c) If there is an obligation for the parties to meet more than once in the negotiation period leading up to the price review date. In other words, in order to submit the price review to arbitration, the price review clause may require that the parties must have met at least once for the purposes of agreeing a price adjustment.
d) Whether senior management is required to participate in negotiations at any point.
三、修订因素——调整或修订合同价格的适用标准是什么？
3. Revision Factors–What Are the Applicable Criteria To Adjust or Revise the Contract Price?
在任何价格复议中，通常所谓“修订因素”的范围与效力，都是双方争议的核心战场——本质上即双方修订合同价格公式时，必须考量哪些因素或基准数据。对此，价格复议条款同样会对双方作出指引，通常会明确哪些信息必须/可以纳入考量、是否存在特定的参照市场、是否可能存在特定的合格数据集，以及数据采集的约定时间窗口。
例如，价格复议条款可能约定：
“对自购销协议生效之日起新签署、且目的地为中国的长期合同价格进行评估。”
尽管此类约定看似范围明确，但仍可能引发重要的解释争议，包括：
Often the key battleground issue in any price review is the scope and effect of what are commonly termed the “revision factors” – essentially, what factors or benchmark data must the parties consider when revising the contract price formula. Again, the price review clause will direct the parties on this subject, typically informing them as to what particular information must/may be considered, whether there is a particular referenced market and (potentially) a particular set of qualifying data, and over what prescribed time window must the data have been gathered.
For example, the price review provision may provide for:
“An evaluation of the prices of newly signed long-term contracts executed since the SPA commencement date and delivering into China.”
Despite its purportedly limited focus, such an approach nonetheless may raise important interpretative questions, including:
1. “评估”的边界何在？对于价格复议的执行方式是否有进一步指引？如无进一步约定，则双方在评估基础合格数据时可能享有一定自由裁量空间。
2. 此处“长期”的定义是什么？是5年、10年，还是10年以上？采用不同的解释，将对应影响评估所用合同数据集的规模与范围。
3. 交付至中国境内的行为须发生在哪个期间？是须持续向中国境内交付，还是过往曾有过中国境内交付记录即可？
4. 须满足多少次交付才可纳入合格范围？仅一次向中国交付即可，还是须多次、持续向中国交付？
5. 如何认定特定合同的交付目的地为中国？若合同相对方为终端用户，该认定通常较为容易；但如果合同相对方为投资组合购买方（portfolio purchasers），认定过程则可能更为复杂。
a) What is the extent of the “evaluation”? Are there any further instructions on how to carry out the price review? If not, this may leave the parties with a certain amount of discretion as to how to evaluate the underlying qualifying data.
b) What is the definition of “long-term” in this context? Is it five, 10, 10+ years? The adopted interpretation will have a corresponding impact on the scale and scope of the dataset of contracts used in the evaluation.
c) Over what period must there have been deliveries into China? Must there be ongoing deliveries into China, or will it suffice that there have been deliveries into China in the past?
d) How many deliveries are required to qualify? Is it sufficient that there was only one delivery into China, or must there be multiple, continuous deliveries into China?
e) How to ascertain whether the particular contract is delivering into China. This may be easier to determine if, for example, the contract is with an end user. However, this may be complicated by contracts with portfolio purchasers.
另一种情形下，价格复议条款可能采用更宽泛的表述，约定：
“双方应举行会议，对相关因素进行评估讨论，包括近期向亚洲交付的有约束力合同。”
该类条款可能引发更多解释问题，例如：
Alternatively, a price review clause may have a broader focus and provide that:
“The Parties shall meet and discuss an assessment of relevant factors including recent, binding contracts delivered into Asia.”
This type of clause can raise a variety of additional interpretive questions, such as:
1. “包括”与“相关因素”的含义是什么？在条款未穷尽列举的情况下，双方还可考量哪些其他因素？
2. 由于未限定为长期交易，双方可能将意向书（heads of agreement）、近期价格复议结果，乃至现货及短期交易纳入评估范围。这自然会形成规模大得多的待评估数据集，进而可能在谈判中引发更多关于何为合格数据的争议。
3. 此处“近期”如何界定？“近期”的含义很可能成为谈判核心争议点，并可能引发分析中应采用交付时点标准还是交易时点标准的争论。
4. “有约束力”的定义是什么？是必须为已签署的正式购销协议，还是已签署的意向书也可纳入？
5. 在亚洲区域存在多个细分市场的情况下，“亚洲”的范围如何界定？
a) What is the meaning of “including” and “relevant factors”? What other factors can the parties consider in circumstances where they have not provided a complete list?
b) With no limitation to long-term deals only, the parties may look to include heads of agreement (“HOAs”), recent price reviews and possibly spot and short-term transactions in their assessment. This naturally could create a much larger dataset to consider, which may introduce greater scope for debate in negotiations as to what data qualifies or does not.
c) What constitutes “recent” in this context? The meaning of “recent” will likely represent a key point of discussion and may introduce debates on the applicability of a delivered or transaction=based approach in the analysis.
d) What is the definition of “binding”? Does it have to be a final, signed SPA or could it be an executed HOA?
e) What is the definition of “Asia” in circumstances where there are multiple regional markets in the Asia region?
以上仅为示例性列举，并未穷尽所有需个案研判的因素。当然，在此方面还有诸多其他问题可供探讨。
These points represent an illustrative, nonexhaustive list of factors that will need to be considered on a case-by-case basis. There are, of course, many other issues that one could discuss in this regard.
四、数据——适用哪些数据？数据来源为何？
4. Data–What Data Applies and From What Sources?
价格复议初期，双方通常会就评估合同价格所用合格数据的范围与适用性产生争议。当前市场中，价格复议越来越依赖多类数据集的结合，包括双方自有保密数据以及第三方数据。因此，一方面需考量专有数据的保密限制，另一方面需审慎选择和使用第三方数据。
就第三方数据而言，不同数据服务商（如Woodmac、ICS Heren、Poten、FGE等）发布的数据可能存在不一致性。此外，各服务商的许可条款也不尽相同，需仔细评估：其收费标准存在差异，且在部分情形下，对其数据在仲裁程序中的使用方式或使用量设有不同限制。这些事项也需要LNG行业专家参与研判。
Price reviews regularly involve debates at the early stages as to the scope and applicability of the qualifying data against which the contract price must be evaluated or assessed. Increasingly in the market, price reviews rely on a combination of different data sets, including the parties’ confidential data and third-party data. It is therefore important to consider the confidentiality restrictions applicable to proprietary data on the one hand, and the selection and usage of third-party data on the other. As to the latter, there may also be data inconsistencies between the data reported by data providers such as Woodmac, ICS Heren, Poten and FGE, for example. Moreover, each provider may also have different licence terms, which need to be carefully evaluated, with different costs involved and, in some cases, varying limitations on the usage or the amount of usage of their data in any arbitration. These are items which also require consideration from LNG-industry experts.
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